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Market Boom or Bust? Don’t Rely on Pundits

Writer's picture: Steve MartinSteve Martin

This is an excellent article by Daniel Solin in which he talks about how the guessing about what the short term future of the market is is bad place for you to focus.  Quoting Dan, he says “This debate is particularly insidious because it keeps you from focusing on issues you can control, like your asset allocation, costs and tax efficiency.”

I couldn’t agree more.  I hope you enjoy the article.

Steve

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It’s hard to view the financial news without seeing speculation about whether the stock market is poised to continue its remarkable run or is about to burst and send the country into another recession. This debate is particularly insidious because it keeps you from focusing on issues you can control, like your asset allocation, costs and tax efficiency.

On September 20, I wrote a blog post titled “The Great Hedge Fund Myth”, in which I noted the poor historical performance of hedge funds and questioned what value investors were receiving for the obscene fees they were paying. I referenced a September 14 blog post by Jeff Macke, the supremely confident host of Yahoo’s Breakout. Macke observed that hedge fund managers had two basic choices. They could write their investors and explain their refusal to “take part in this bogus rally based on little more than a possibly corrupt Fed chair dumping money into the system”. Alternatively, he told them: “You need to buy Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG). You have to take fliers on left-for-dead names like JC Penney (JCP) and, yes, even Facebook (FB).”

On September 14, the DJIA closed at 13,593. It closed on March 22, 2013 at 14,512. The “bogus rally” continued its upward trajectory. Here are the stocks recommended by Macke, along with their closing prices on Sept. 14 and March 22:

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